ING: Non-oil sector to remain primary engine of Azerbaijan's economy in 2026–2028

The development pace of the non-oil segment of Azerbaijan's economy in the next three years will significantly exceed the figures of the oil sector, Report informs, citing the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group.

According to ING experts' estimates, the country's non-oil GDP will increase by 2.5% in 2026, accelerate to 4.5% in 2027, and stand at 4% in 2028. At the same time, the oil GDP will demonstrate a decline of 1.5% in 2026, a slight increase of 0.5% in 2027, and zero dynamics (0%) in 2028.

The overall growth of Azerbaijan's real GDP is forecasted at 1.5% in 2026, 3% in 2027, and 2.5% in 2028. According to the banking group's calculations, the volume of investments in the country's economy will increase by 4% in both 2026 and 2027, while in 2028 the growth will amount to 3.5%.

In the sphere of industrial production, a contraction of 0.5% is expected in 2026, but a recovery to 2% is projected for 2027, and a growth of 1.5% in 2028.

The unemployment rate will remain unchanged at the 5.2% mark throughout the entire period under review.